Market Overview - November 2019

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Relative Returns

The month of November was dominated by selling pressure for all Digital Assets covered in this report. If we recall from the Market Overview for the month of October, markets experienced a move towards the end of the month that especially impacted TRON and still accounted for a sizable Bull move forthe rest of the assets. This move continued on until the second week of November, but then fell, not in one big move but overtime, which is pleasing to see in the crypto market. It showcases the market slowly exhibiting more similar behaviours to markets that we consider to be performing “efficiently”. On that note, comparing the move of TRON from last month to this one shows less erratic movement of the currency and following in line with the rest of the market. This is also in line with the correlation readings, further down in the report, with TRONs and BTCs correlation moving back into the region of strong positive correlation.

Overall, all coins in this report finished the month with a loss, TRON’s strong move last month made it the only asset finishing with positive margins after 2 months. Bears were driving the market for at least 2 weeks of November. However, towards the end of the months Bulls seemed comfortable to start pressure at those prices. This could be linked to the recent Tagomi/Coinbase news leaks, but knowing the crypto markets, we will not see that headline priced in yet, we might be in for a bullish December and go against the idea of a deflationary December.

November 2019, Biggest Changes
Asset Pair Price IN USDT
(October 1st)
Price IN USDT
(November 1st)
Price IN USDT
(November 31st)
Monthly %
Change
Bi-Monthly %
Change
TRX_USDT 0.01464 0.01946 0.01526 ↓ -21.58% ↑ +4.23%
XRP_USDT 0.25793 0.29110 0.22155 ↓ -23.89% ↓ -14.10%
XLM_USDT 0.06128 0.06902 0.05639 ↓ -18.30% ↓ -7,98%
BTC_USDT 8423.57 9064.12 7332.82 ↓ -19.10% ↓ -12.95%
EOS_USDT 3.0462 3.2124 2.7107 ↓ -15.62% ↓ -11.02%
10-Hour Rolling Volatility

The Spike in volatility during November 4th - 5th coincides with the price spike that XLM experienced during the same time. Looking at the volatility of XLM throughout the month shows that only towards the 2nd half of the month did it stop having periodic upticks on volatility. Comparing the price graph to the correlation graph, shows that when return of XLM fell in line with the rest of the market, volatility also fell to similarlevels and moved almost in tandem with the rest of the market.

The volatility behaviouris usually pretty closely traced by most digital assets, on the respective exchange, but we can see that tightening of volatility readings when the Bull pressure return in the final third of the month.

This confirms our analysis that the market is currently in a consolidation phase. Bulls have gained some power but not enough to create a sizable up move, and it is yet to be seen if the Bears will grip the market again and drive prices lower. Let's hope the crypto market can beat the holiday spending and still generate higher prices even in the traditionally deflationary month of December and lead us to a lucrative 2020.

Correlations

The correlations across the different coins, when compared to BTC, mostly increased from last month to end of November. This can be seen in the price moves which trace each others shape quite closely. Besides XLM, which jumped out of line this month and actually decreased in correlation; EOS stayed almost flat. XLM has some very interesting correlation readings, which stem from the periodic volatility spikes and the overperformance of XLM at the beginning of the month, which resulted in a different trajectory compared to the other assets forthe rest of the month. With most readings in the high 0.7 - 0.8 range, the assumption was that the Bitcoin Dominance Index, which compares the percentage of Market Capitalization attributed to Bitcoin compared to other assets, would show higherreadings in November versus October. The Bitcoin Dominance Index, when compared from month beginning Octoberto month end November actually fell by roughly one percent, going against initial assumptions. It will be interesting to see if the recent news leaks and headlines can bring the Bulls confidence back into the markets and create an end of year push.

Notable News & Announcements

1https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-3iqs-bitcoin-investment-fund-se eks-tsx-listing/

2https://www.northlandwealth.com/single-post/2019/11/04/The-Process-of-AddingCryptocurrencies-to-Northlands-Asset-Allocation

3https://ec.europa.eu/digital-single-market/en/news/eu-artificial-intelligence-and-blo ckchain-investment-fund-invest-100-million-euros-startups

4.1https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/press-releases-pmn/business-wire-news-releases-pmn/3iqs-the-bitcoin-fund-receives-favourable-ruling-from-ontario-securities-commission-panel

4.2 https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/11/15/digital-assets-will-become-institutional-a nd-be-another-asset-class-says-analyst.html


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